Berg Alert 2024

Smurfatefrog wrote:

Philipj wrote:

From my understanding the attack took place on Thursday. They said that they ran into a lot of shepards on the way to the cave. I think they ended up walking out on Saturday. We left two of them at Marble baths early on Saturday morning. They were still waiting for the rest of their group that was further down the valley towards Lesleys.

ok thanks. We also saw 10 or 15 shepherds in the valley behind Judge/Corner pass on the Friday afternoon, it was very busy! Cows, horses, sheep, dogs (dogs chasing cows around and vice versa), and a guided group of 15 from "Drakensberg Hiker" was tenting there.
Overall we must've seen well over 50 Basothos (although we did go through the Jarateng valley), with no issues
 

Who were the group attacked? "Drakensberg Hiker"'s group or a another group?

No, it was another group. The Drakensberg hiker group only went up on Friday, so the day after the incident.

As far as I know, this is the first time people have been attacked overnight in a Berg cave as against a tent or tents. 

This is subjective - but from memory northern Berg attacks seem to have a relative peak in the calendar around Easter. I’ve wondered if this is because the thieves are keen on gear for the forthcoming winter. 

tiska wrote:

As far as I know, this is the first time people have been attacked overnight in a Berg cave as against a tent or tents. 

This is subjective - but from memory northern Berg attacks seem to have a relative peak in the calendar around Easter. I’ve wondered if this is because the thieves are keen on gear for the forthcoming winter. 
 

Yes that could be, but there are also more groups up there due to the holidays, which increases chances of attacks.

Edwin128 wrote:

tiska wrote:

As far as I know, this is the first time people have been attacked overnight in a Berg cave as against a tent or tents. 

This is subjective - but from memory northern Berg attacks seem to have a relative peak in the calendar around Easter. I’ve wondered if this is because the thieves are keen on gear for the forthcoming winter. 



 

Yes that could be, but there are also more groups up there due to the holidays, which increases chances of attacks.



 

That's true, Edwin128. More hikers do increase the opportunity for attacks. One could also claim that more hikers in a region = greater security for the hikers.
 
In addition, the motivation for attacks and thefts will increase because of the forthcoming winter and the fact that the herders are soon to withdraw from the escarpment area to lower lying land in Lesotho where there is much less opportunity to steal warm clothes,  food and sleeping bags and presumably no consequence for the attacks on hikers..

 

I followed up on timing of attacks on hikers in the high Berg (so not issues on the roads in to the Berg or stuff near resorts).
The data comes from the VE Berg Alert threads which is to my knowledge the very best data set on this issue.

Evidence >> subjectivity

Here is a summary of attacks on hikers using the format:
year, month, time of day, broad region. 

So far, 2024 to 2012 inclusive, Easter wins. 
Using a simple chi-squared test, there is less than one in ten million chance that the distribution of attacks on hikers across the months of the year is simply random.
There's something about Easter/Autumn and it is long standing.

2024
28 March  night Mafadi 

2023
15 April day Walker’s Peak

 2022
No reports 

2021 
27 Feb daytime Bollard Pass 
October night Giants Pass 

2020
March daytime Mashai Pass 

2019
LDF incident - not the usual modis 

2018
April night Fangs Pass 

2017
April Tsepeng-Matabeng 

2016
April night Ribbon Falls 
April night Fangs Pass

2015
26 April day base of Masubusuba Pass

2014
21 April night Tugela Falls

30 April day Rhino Peak

2013
No reports

2012
25 March night Amphitheatre



Will cover other years when I get a moment  


2005
March night between Giants and Langalibalele



 

 

Philipj wrote:

Philipj post=78962 userid=2236

We ran into some hikers on Friday (29 Mar 2024) coming down from Mafadi and they had been attacked while sleeping in Upper Injisuthi the previous night. Apperently their shoes, pants etc. was stolen and they we pelted with rocks from above the cave when they attempted to pursue the thiefs. Thay said that there were fairly big rocks thrown. They deffinately seemed fairly shaken and they were busy hiking out in Crocs when we found them at Marble baths.

Post on IG about this incident - no mention of the stone throwing, tho.

Remarkably understated account of events in UIC. 

tiska wrote:

 


 

Thanks tiska! That is a very interesting insight! A lot to unpack in terms of probable causes. I've fried my brain trying to connect the dots. Has to be a combination of factors in play that produces the outcome.