La Niña for the next 3 or 4 months

Rainfall figures for Feb 2026
Shaleburn 130mm which is -15% for the 25 year average
Royal Natal - 178 which is +6% however the first week has no data which seems a bit odd for this time of the year.  I could not find any data on the Mikes Pass station for that period either.  I do recall that the first two weeks in Durban was extremly hot and dry, so perhaps the data is correct.

I'm so glad we are entering autumn. Less rain, blue skies, possibly some snow..come on winter!!!

Riaang wrote:

I'm so glad we are entering autumn. Less rain, blue skies, possibly some snow..come on winter!!!

Cant wait for winter..... i have a new sleeping bag to test 

So just a recap from the Gemini AI data at the begining of the thread.
Month Historical Average (mm/month)       ENSO Forecast for PeriodPredicted Rainfall Range (mm).  Expected Condition
November 2025                 90.26 mm        La Niña113 mm to 126 mm                                                  Above Normal
December 2025               139.43 mm        La Niña174 mm to 195 mm                                                  Above Normal
January 2026                  185.87 mm        La Niña / Neutral transition  232 mm to 260 mm                  Above Normal / Peak Season
February 2026                 175.98 mm       La Niña / Neutral transition  220 mm to 246 mm                  Above Normal 

Nov 25 - RNNP 255mm +167%
Dec 25 - RNNP 174mm +27%, Shaleburn 317mm +27%
Jan 26 - Mike's Pass 148mm, Shaleburn 104 -41%
Feb 26 - RNNP 178mm +6%, Shaleburn 130mm -15%
Mar 26 - Mike's Pass 167mm, Giant's Castle 126mm +42%, Shaleburn 160mm +31%

The historical 25 year average for RNNP (Northern Berg)mm summed for the months Nov through Feb was 591mm.  (I also used Mike's Pass data when the RNNP looked suspect).  The 4 month measured La Nina season was 755mm.  The La Nina Gemini Ai forcast ranged between 739-827mm for this 4 month period.  
I have added March's figures as well at the bottom as the figures show a continued increase over the 25 year average.  They were not used though for the Ai forecast and is just for interest.
So a definite wetter period which is born out by the much wetter berg.  So an interesting little experiment.