Highlands Fanatic wrote: [
I'm just concerned about a potential backlash to us as hikers. These guys may start thinking: who gave their position away, are any hikers they pass by potentially gonna tell on them etc etc. I'm concerned the casual bypassing of these groups with hikers may have come to an end.
It seemes completely logical to think this way - but the evidence so far is that the smugglers are not suspicious of hikers. They also have no objective reason to be, as far as I know, but that is not something they will have any proof of.
If one views the smuggling process from the smuggler's perspective, then their job is to shift as much dope as quickly as they can into SA - preferably without having to engage with any third parties. Their key threat comes from rival gangs who may want to steal the dope (imagine hiking with 3.8 million ZAR in the side pocket of the backpack). I think this is the main reason they carry weapons. Thereafter, the threat comes from police/military - which we know to be too infrequent a threat to have any impact on what they do beyond the short term. Thereafter still, the threat may be from any other landowner along the way (e.g. in Mnweni) who may want to impose a tax of one sort or another on the passing trade. Hikers are way down the list and are not a direct threat. Smugglers may think hikers pass on information, but will know that links between busts and hikers are at best very indirect - there are so few busts compared with contacts with hikers. There is nevertheless a chance that smugglers might mistake hikers for police/military - especially at night. In fact I think this has already happened in the Cathedral area. If the police/military were to make a much more systematic and extensive effort in the Berg to curtail smuggling, then this risk would begin to approach the kind of risks the population is exposed to in SA with hijacking and heists. For the moment, the Berg seems safer than the streets - at least to me.
There is a parallel to the Berg smuggling issue which I have come across - namely in the central Sahara. In the 1990s, fuel was smuggled south out of Libya/Algeria into Mali/Niger. Cigarettes went the other way. This trade has morphed into an enormously lucrative cocaine trade (e.g. a 727 was landed in the Sahara with 10 tons of coke - the plane was left behind in the desert as the profits didn't justify the refuel/takeoff hassle). In all this time, tourists like me in the central Sahara have had the occasional contact with passing smugglers, mostly at night. One such occasion was actually on the slopes of Mnt Tiska in SE Algeria. The smugglers were coming in from Niger at night. Smugglers have always studiously ignored the tourists. We are not part of their mission.