Dry January?

01 Feb 2025 13:40 #79456 by tiska
Dry January? was created by tiska
I’ve been keeping an eye on satellite imagery of the Berg over January 2025. 
From Giants to RNNP seems to have had an unusually low incidence of thunderstorms. 
if you’ve been in this part of the Berg, have you noticed that it has been dry?

 

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03 Feb 2025 17:45 #79466 by Serious tribe
Replied by Serious tribe on topic Dry January?
Hi Tiska
I have also been following the rainfall, looking at a French site that collects rainfall and other data from RNNP, Giants and Shaleburn near Underberg.  For Dec 24 RNNP recorded 183mm which was 34% more than the norm, but Jan was 155mm, 20% less than the norm.  Shaleburne had 53 and 23% less than the norm.  Last Jan RNNP received 205mm.  Most they have received was in 2011 when they got 358mm.  The average for the last 25 years is 186mm.  So is defiinely drier if you just look at the averages.

Looking at the Cathedral Peak webcam which I usaully do daily, it seems like there are heavy dark thunder clouds from about midday, but this is not resulting in much rain.  At contour level though, the tarns are fill about the same as they were last year.  I am hoping to go up some time this month, but am trying to dodge the 'rain' that I keep seeing on the forecast and the heavy clouds on the webcam.  The forecasts though always show more rain than they actually is measured.  So its hard to work out what is actually going to happen on the day.

Not sure if this helps as it is theoretical.  I wish I had been up there recently 

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04 Feb 2025 16:33 #79471 by tiska
Replied by tiska on topic Dry January?
Many thanks ST. Great knowledge. Much appreciated.

Could I ask where you find the RNNP data? I usually use weather underground but the RNNP station doesn't show up on that site.

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05 Feb 2025 12:06 #79474 by Serious tribe
Replied by Serious tribe on topic Dry January?
Hi Tiska.
Pleasure.  It is in French which is a bind, and I cant recall how I am still able to use it without logging in, so hopefully you can work it out.  Most of the words are translatable as they look like English, for the rest, you might need to translate until you know your way around.  Of course the data is only as relaible as the input.  But seems to be ok.
www.infoclimat.fr/climatologie-mensuelle/68474/janvier/2025/royal-natal-nat-pa.html
 
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05 Feb 2025 12:21 #79475 by tiska
Replied by tiska on topic Dry January?
Useful site.
Well found!
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11 Feb 2025 09:17 #79485 by Serious tribe
Replied by Serious tribe on topic Dry January?
Judging from the recent trip that I just read about, seems like there is plenty of water now!

@Tiska. The french site that i sent you doesnt seem to be poluated with data for Feb.  I have now since registered, and gotten hold of them and awaiting their response.  I realised that at the top rhs of the web address bar, on mac a least, there is a language translation option.  So I manged to change it to english which wa how i ended up registering in the hope that the data would be there.  Will see what happens.
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11 Feb 2025 14:47 #79487 by JonWells
Replied by JonWells on topic Dry January?
I had another site to recommend to you guys, but I see they too have no data after 27 Jan. 

There was a major cyber attack on the WeatherSA website around this date which I believe is still ongoing, so it might be related to the lack of updated data.

www.news24.com/fin24/climate_future/news/hackers-target-sa-weather-service-twice-hitting-critical-web-and-email-systems-20250127

 
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11 Feb 2025 14:54 #79488 by JonWells
Replied by JonWells on topic Dry January?
It could also be worthwhile checking out the monthly precipitation anomaly layer on Ventusky.  I guess this would be based on model data rather than actual measurements but it should show the general trend.

Changing the date to 31 January shows that the berg was very dry, while the coast had above average rainfall:

 

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12 Feb 2025 12:08 #79494 by Serious tribe
Replied by Serious tribe on topic Dry January?
Thanks Johnathan another one to add to my weather tab list 

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A few questions if you dont mind.
When it says monthly anomaly, does this just refer to less precipitation than the norm, and not something related to climate change?
Are you using the automatic model or another?
Thanks
Karl

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12 Feb 2025 13:17 - 12 Feb 2025 13:18 #79495 by JonWells
Replied by JonWells on topic Dry January?
Sure thing, when this precipitation anomaly layer was added in 2022, Ventusky explained it as follows:

"We have just added new climate layer on Ventusky. This new layer is called "Precipitation Monthly Anomaly": This is a unique layer available only on Ventusky. It shows precipitation anomaly from the long-term average for a period from the first day of the month to a user selected day of the month. For example, the anomaly for December 10 of 2020 shows how much the precipitation in the period from 1st to 10th December of 2020 differs from the average measured between 1st to 10th December. The average is based on the period 1980-2020 (40 years). Precipitation above average are displayed from blue to purple, and below average are displayed from orange to red colors. Note that you have to select the last day of the month to view overall anomaly for the whole month"

From what I can see, only GFS model is available for this layer, so it will automatically default to GFS.

 
Last edit: 12 Feb 2025 13:18 by JonWells.

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