Gray's Pass - Ships Prow Pass Loop

I'm new to this forum and need some advice please.

My plan this weekend is to camp at Keith Bush Camp from Monks Cowl on Friday, go up Grays Pass Saturday and then, if the weather is OK, camp near Nkosasana Cave and return back down Grays on Sunday; alternatively, if it's rough at the top then continue down Ships Prow and camp at the bottom of the pass, returning to Monks Cowl on Sunday.

My questions are:

1. Weather: the internet forecasts are looking a little bit dismal with rain and potentially thunderstorms forecast on Friday night and Saturday morning. How accurate are these internet forecasts? Wind speeds and temperatures look OK but I haven't slept on top of the 'berg in winter and don't really know how to interpret the forecasts. Would you do it, or do you think it's going to be uncomfortable? (I have good quality cold weather gear, just not fond of spending the day in icy headwinds and then getting wet.)

2. Safety: There are only 2 of us going so I'm thinking of renting a satellite phone in case we have an emergency. Are their any opinions out there on the usefulness of satellite phones?

Thanks!

SamK wrote: My questions are:

1. Weather: the internet forecasts are looking a little bit dismal with rain and potentially thunderstorms forecast on Friday night and Saturday morning. How accurate are these internet forecasts? Wind speeds and temperatures look OK but I haven't slept on top of the 'berg in winter and don't really know how to interpret the forecasts. Would you do it, or do you think it's going to be uncomfortable? (I have good quality cold weather gear, just not fond of spending the day in icy headwinds and then getting wet.)

2. Safety: There are only 2 of us going so I'm thinking of renting a satellite phone in case we have an emergency. Are their any opinions out there on the usefulness of satellite phones?

Thanks!

Could I ask what internet site you are looking at for the weather forecasts? There are several centres that produce forecasts based on their global model runs.
Either way, the forecasts you are looking at today, probably were initialised with data from midnight Monday/Tuesday at best so the forecast for Saturday morning would be at the limit of the skill of even the best forecast system given the sensitivity of the forecasts to error growth at ranges of 5 days or so. Keep watching the forecasts and keep comparing between them. The weather is normally stable at this time of the year, as you probably know, it would take a large system to undo the stable state of high pressure dominance. The forecast models should resolve this quite well closer to time - meaning Thursday sometime.

Satellite phones will help in the valleys where cell phone reception is much more hit and miss. From the top of the Berg cell phone reception normally works although having a phone or phones that link to more than one provider helps to improve your chances. I own 3 satellite phones but I have never bothered to take them on a Berg trip before. I keep them for the Sahara.

What is the water availability like around Grays Pass this time of year? Planning to do Grays and Ships next weekend. After Blind mans corner, what is the last available water and would there be water at Keith bush camp? See mountain weather forecast predicts a bit of rain through this weekend, not sure if it will be enough to produce standing or flowing water in the rivers though.

We did Grays pass 2 months ago.
The only water we found at Keith's bush camp was small pools of water in rock hollows (not flowing but drinkable).
I would imagine that these would have dried up by now.
There was a trickle of water at Blind Mans corner
On the summit the stream was flowing

I would imagine the Mhlwazini would be flowing when you cross it on the way to KBC, and with any luck the recent rainfalls are starting to show in water levels.

The trickle at Blind Man's is in the wrong direction for heading to KBC, but there are occasional streams that may have a trickle at the moment along the stretch between Blind Man and Hlathikhulu Nek.

Thanks for the advice guys. Will carry extra water with in case there isn't any to be found easily.

Intrepid, where is the Mhlawzini river?

ghaznavid wrote: I would imagine the Mhlwazini would be flowing when you cross it on the way to KBC, and with any luck the recent rainfalls are starting to show in water levels.

The trickle at Blind Man's is in the wrong direction for heading to KBC, but there are occasional streams that may have a trickle at the moment along the stretch between Blind Man and Hlathikhulu Nek.

The trickle at Blind Man's corner is a 200m detour off the path to KBC so no problem if you are looking for water

Thanks, got it.