Snow Watch 2013

12 May 2013 06:27 #56866 by Smurfatefrog
Replied by Smurfatefrog on topic Snow Watch 2013
Nice clear day today

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12 May 2013 15:20 #56869 by Smurfatefrog
Replied by Smurfatefrog on topic Snow Watch 2013
Too slow there Intrepid :whistle:

Here's one stolen from FB

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13 May 2013 05:47 #56872 by JonWells
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Here is yesterday's Modis image showing the extent of the snowfall. The Northern Berg around Afriski certainly received a fair amount!


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13 May 2013 05:49 #56873 by JonWells
Replied by JonWells on topic Snow Watch 2013
Image of Afriski taken on Saturday 11 May. Image from the snow report facebook page:


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13 May 2013 19:41 #56888 by intrepid
Replied by intrepid on topic Snow Watch 2013

Smurfatefrog wrote: Too slow there Intrepid :whistle:

What are the odds of two VE members almost simultaneously posting Cathedral webcam shots of the snow at 8.30am on a Sunday morning? Apparently quite high!

What I find quite interesting is how Snowfall No 4 hit the Eastern Cape Berg, and a week later No 5 hits the Central and Northern KZN Berg...both leaving the other end pretty much untouched.

Take nothing but litter, leave nothing but a cleaner Drakensberg.

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14 May 2013 07:38 - 14 May 2013 07:41 #56898 by JonWells
Replied by JonWells on topic Snow Watch 2013
Going through the previous snow watch threads, I see an interesting pattern:

YEAR......... SNOW EVENTS BEFORE MID MAY
2010 ...................................... 0
2011 ...................................... 2
2012 ...................................... 4
2013 ...................................... 5

:whistle:
Last edit: 14 May 2013 07:41 by JonWells.
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14 May 2013 08:19 #56900 by ghaznavid
Replied by ghaznavid on topic Snow Watch 2013
It would be interesting to see that table compared to total snow falls for the year.

There has definitely been more rain so far this year than in the past few years.

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16 May 2013 06:58 #56924 by JonWells
Replied by JonWells on topic Snow Watch 2013
It seems the cold fronts this year have managed to synchronize themselves with weekends!

Here is the next 3 days suggested snowfall. Note, at this stage all of the snow will fall during Friday (17th May). Saturday and Sunday should be clear skies.



Suggested total accumulations from Mountain-Forecast:

Thabana Ntlenyana- 3cm
Giant's Castle- 5cm
Champagne Castle- 4cm

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16 May 2013 07:38 #56925 by tiska
Replied by tiska on topic Snow Watch 2013

JonWells wrote: It seems the cold fronts this year have managed to synchronize themselves with weekends!


There is something of an explanation for this.
In the southern African winter the sequence of weather is governed by the passage of waves in the winds at a height of about 10km. The general name for these features is Rossby Waves. It turns out there is a preferred sequence of 6 days (so quasi-phase locked to the weekend) to the procession.
Here is the scientific paper that first unlocked this interesting characteristic:

docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/101/mwr-101-08-0650.pdf

The work was based on spectral analysis of surface pressure observations.
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16 May 2013 10:38 #56926 by plouw
Replied by plouw on topic Snow Watch 2013
@ mnt-tiska: This is interesting! I've also picked up this pattern in surfing. Some years we have good waves in winter almost every weekend (flat in between) and some years these good days unfortunately fall in the week. As waves are also dependant on cold fronts, when there's snow in the berg, it almost always occurs during same time as a good groundswell. It's always a difficult choice to be meade, head for the mountains to play in the snow or head to J-bay for good swell.

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